I'll analyze XPEL's stock performance for you. Let me gather the relevant financial data and recent developments.Based on the data, here's what happened with XPEL:
Why It Fell (Early August 2024)
XPEL crashed from ~$40 to $31.75 in early August due to:
1. Disappointing Q1 2024 Results
Revenue grew only 5% (well below expectations)
US aftermarket revenue grew just 1.9% - essentially flat
Net income plunged 41.7% to $6.7M
EPS dropped from $0.41 to $0.24
2. China Business Collapse
China revenue crashed to $1.5M in Q1 (from $16.6M in Q4 2023)
Ongoing sell-in/sell-through distribution issues creating massive volatility
3. Reduced Guidance
Management slashed full-year guidance to 8-10% organic growth
Cited consumer weakness, EV market cooling, and port delays
4. Macro Headwinds
Aftermarket dealers down 10-15% year-over-year
EV enthusiasm cooling (fewer enthusiast buyers)
Port delays affecting key brands like Porsche and Audi (-20% sales)
Why It's Going Up (November - Present)
The stock surged 110%+ from lows ($31 → $51 range) because:
1. Strong Q3 Recovery (Nov 7 earnings)
Revenue hit record $112.9M (+9.9% growth)
US business grew 9.4% with record quarterly revenue
EBITDA grew 10% to $21.7M
Gross margin strong at 42.5%
2. China Stabilization
Management resolved distribution issues
Predictable $8-9M quarterly run rate going forward
Sell-in/sell-through dynamics finally fixed
3. Post-Election Rally
Stock jumped 15% on Nov 7 (election day)
Broader market optimism with Trump win
Expectations of lower regulatory burden
4. Strategic Wins
Completed distributor acquisitions in Japan and India
Dealership services business growing strongly
OEM business expanding (Rivian partnership, Tesla referral program)
New product launches (windshield protection film, colored films coming)
5. Recent Pullback Context The dip from $47 to current $40 range in December appears to be:
Normal profit-taking after 50%+ rally
General market weakness in mid-December
Still up 30% from November lows
Bottom Line: XPEL fell on weak Q1 results and macro concerns but has rallied strongly on improved fundamentals, China stabilization, strategic execution, and post-election optimism. The company is back on track for double-digit growth with margins expanding.
