I'll analyze what's happening with ASPN (Aspen Aerogels). Let me gather the relevant data.Based on the data, here's why ASPN (Aspen Aerogels) has collapsed ~80% from its highs:
Why ASPN Fell
1. GM EV Production Crash (Post-Election)
GM dramatically cut Ultium EV production in October 2024
Q4 2024 saw GM slow production to determine "natural demand" for EVs
ASPN's Q1 2025 guidance: $75-95M revenue (down from $123M in Q4)
GM indicated EV demand will be "soft through early 2026"
2. Massive Strategic Pivot - Plant 2 Halted
Stopped construction of the $670M Georgia Plant 2 facility
Abandoned plans for $1.2-1.6B revenue capacity expansion
Shifted to "modular" capacity strategy using external manufacturing in China instead
This represents a complete reversal of their growth strategy
3. Major Cost-Cutting & Restructuring
$35M annual cost reduction (10% workforce cut in Q1 2025)
Reduced fixed costs back to 2023 levels
$3M restructuring charges
4. Collapsing Profitability Outlook
Q1 2025 guidance: Breakeven to NEGATIVE $14M EBITDA
Compare to Q3 2024: $25.4M EBITDA
Full year 2025 could see $7-15M adjusted EBITDA (vs $90M in 2024)
5. EV Market Headwinds
Post-election elimination of:
$7,500 EV tax credit uncertainty
OEMs no longer "forced" to overproduce EVs for compliance
Key Numbers Show the Damage:
Metric | 2024 Actual | 2025 Q1 Guide | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $453M (full year) | $75-95M (Q1) | -60% run rate |
EBITDA | $90M (full year) | -$14M to $0 (Q1) | Negative |
GM dependence | ~70% of thermal barrier revenue | Collapsing |
6. Inventory & Working Capital Issues
GM has 83,000 units in inventory (end of 2024)
Suggests production will stay depressed through Q1 2025
ASPN seeing 2-3 month lag between parts shipment and vehicle production
The Bottom Line
ASPN's bull case was predicated on:
✅ GM ramping to 300,000+ Ultium EVs annually
✅ Building $670M Plant 2 for 2027 capacity needs
✅ European OEM ramps (ACC/Stellantis/Mercedes)
All three pillars have crumbled:
GM cut production by ~50%+
Plant 2 construction halted indefinitely
European ramps delayed to late 2025 at earliest
The stock fell because ASPN went from a high-growth story (90% revenue growth in 2024, path to $650M+ revenue) to a survival mode company trying to break even while the EV market resets to lower demand levels.
The company believes EVs will recover, but near-term visibility is essentially zero - hence the 80% stock decline.
